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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."